Picture a typical conversation at the start of a quarter. The head of operations meets the team leads. Asks how many projects we can take this quarter. Each lead looks at their team, multiplies the number of people by working days and gives a number. We add the projects up, they fit. Off we go. Three months later two projects are a month late, people are tired, the client is unhappy.
What went wrong? Each lead planned capacity assuming each person works 8 hours per day on projects. In reality a person works productively 5–6 hours. The rest is meetings, emails, context switching, short breaks, small office matters. This is not laziness – it is normal human work. Anyone who has worked in an office knows this firsthand.
The second mechanism: planning does not account for holidays, sickness, training. Statistically each person has 25–30 days of leave per year, 5–8 sick days, 3–5 training days. Together 30–40 days a year, i.e. 15% of the year. That 15% rarely lands in the quarterly plan.
The third mechanism: every project has nonlinear overhead. The kickoff meeting, daily stand-ups, retros, integrations, coordination with other projects. That is 10–20% of project time no one plans because everyone assumes it fits inside 8 hours. It does not.
Together these three mechanisms mean the team's real capacity is 65–75% of nominal (people × days × 8h). An organisation planning 100% is planning 130–150% of real capability. Hence the 120% paradox and constant project slippage.